What questions do concern need to know?
In addition to the existing data provided by sources such as the IPC maps, it would be useful for Concern Worldwide to know:
- How long was the previous dry season?
- Was that longer than normal?
- When the dry season is over depends on onset of season (both catchments getting some water and seeds germinating)
- Has there been enough follow-on rains (temporal distribution) after onset?
- Did crops get enough booster rains to mature and produce crops? (if yes, then rangelands should also be healthy).
- What is the best way to define the 'start of season'?
- How long is the next dry season likely to be?
- Is that likely to be longer than normal?
- How long it is depends on season cessation and average start of next season.
- How good is the rainy season?
- What was the amount of rain relative to normal? (% of normal and SPI).
- What was the quality of the rains? (lots of dry spells? extreme rain?)
- As the season progresses:
- How well it’s spread out is the rain?
- How many days and when we saw heavy rains - for example, did we get a heavy rain in December which refilled the catchment?
- Should we expect flooding?
- What are the real-time rainfall amounts?
- Relevant other variables such as soil moisture or temperature
What are their data requirements?
The information above needs to be presented:
- Graphically across Somalia.
- Summarised by livelihood zone.
- Summarised by political district.
- Available at a specific location.
For each of the statistics above, Concern needs to know
- What is 'normal' for different livelihoods and geographies?
- What is the current situation?
- How does current situation compares to historical events of interest (e.g. the 2011/12 or 2016/17 drought events).
- What does the forecast show?
In the longer term, Concern also needs to know the how a value could be attached to these statistics, in order to allow them to be used as part of a more quantitative grading system for action. This system also needs to be able to take into account red-flagging of a location due to non climatic factors.