What questions do concern need to know?

In addition to the existing data provided by sources such as the IPC maps, it would be useful for Concern Worldwide to know:

  1. How long was the previous dry season?
    1. Was that longer than normal?
    2. When the dry season is over depends on onset of season (both catchments getting some water and seeds germinating)
  2. Has there been enough follow-on rains (temporal distribution) after onset?
    1. Did crops get enough booster rains to mature and produce crops? (if yes, then rangelands should also be healthy).
    2. What is the best way to define the 'start of season'?
  3. How long is the next dry season likely to be?
    1. Is that likely to be longer than normal?
    2. How long it is depends on season cessation and average start of next season.
  4. How good is the rainy season? 
    1. What was the amount of rain relative to normal? (% of normal and SPI).
    2. What was the quality of the rains? (lots of dry spells? extreme rain?)
    3. As the season progresses:
      1. How well it’s spread out is the rain?  
      2. How many days and when we saw heavy rains - for example, did we get a heavy rain in December which refilled the catchment?
    4. Should we expect flooding?
    5. What are the real-time rainfall amounts?
    6. Relevant other variables such as soil moisture or temperature

What are their data requirements?

The information above needs to be presented:

  1. Graphically across Somalia.
  2. Summarised by livelihood zone.
  3. Summarised by political district.
  4. Available at a specific location.

For each of the statistics above, Concern needs to know

  • What is 'normal' for different livelihoods and geographies?
  • What is the current situation?
  • How does current situation compares to historical events of interest (e.g. the 2011/12 or 2016/17 drought events).
  • What does the forecast show?

In the longer term, Concern also needs to know the how a value could be attached to these statistics, in order to allow them to be used as part of a more quantitative grading system for action.  This system also needs to be able to take into account red-flagging of a location due to non climatic factors.