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When assessing seasonal performance (scores), what would need to be the components?

  1. Actual vs % of normal makes a difference, across both the North and South
  2. The climate has high spatial variability. Even in the North East, there are three climate zones for example.
  3. They get key rainfall data from SWALIM
  4. They get seasonal forecasts from the IRI (Simon Mason) and have taken part in CDT training

Tell us more about the variability of weather/climate and how it impacts different communities in Somalia

  1. Within pastoralist farmers, there is a difference between the climate resilience of goat/sheep farmers vs camel farmers
  2. Livelihood zone has seasonal calendar – we can select these from a big book
  3. The start time is more important to crop livelihood zones vs pastoral livelihood zones
  4. Agro-pastoralists commonly prepare their land and plant in advance of the rains (during the dry season)
    1. Can last 2 months by if germinated and not grown then it will fail – then ‘wet sowing’ may be needed
  5. How do you differentiate seasonal performance needs?
    1. Livelihoods based off traditional water resources
      1.  Amount
      2. Seasonality
      3.  Access to non-rainfall water source
  6. What you need the information for matters
  7. River levels matter
  8. Soil types matter (soil water holding capacity)
  9. The period from germination to last ‘wilting point’ is important
  10. They use water satisfaction indices
  11. Two regimes to look at – Bay Region and Western Somaclimate(sic?) – Rainfed crops
  12. If rainfed crops fail, fodder is important

What things do you look at first? When do you see them?

  1. Beginning of onset/timely start
    1. Distribution/temporal and spatial
    2. Duration
    3. Coverage affects migration
    4. Number of rainy days
  2. Nature of nearest water source
  3. Start and follow up (planting/crop development)
  4. Dehr starts Oct 15th but now, it’s the 21st Oct.  Needs the 2nd Dekad of November to be normal.
  5. Ground water?  Soil moisture?

We want to build a roadmap or learning agenda over the next few years – what needs to be on it and why?

  1. In the future, they would like:
    1. More weather stations
    2. Validation of satellite rainfall estimates
    3. Validation of seasonal forecasts

Do you know of similar works we should be referring to?

  1. Resources – Africa Risk Capacity/Africa Risk finance.  They are AU signatories/insurance

Other resources and notes

  • Alternatives to the knowledge gap (2012)
  • Nicholas Haan (look him up)
  • They are interested in knowing what a future drought looks like (e.g. 2050)
  • They would like to help create a systematic interface between researchers/science and practitioners/other – perhaps Harseira